SCANNING THE CONSERVATION HORIZON A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Disclaimer: This draft document represents the work and views of the editors and authors and does not necessarily imply endorsement by the agencies or organizations who provided financial support for this work, or with whom the authors are affiliated. Cover: Snow geese at Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge. Coastal marshes such as these will be vulnerable to inundation from climate change-induced sea-level rise. Rapid climate change is the defining conservation issue of our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly apparent, from drowned coastal marshes and drying prairie potholes to melting glaciers. These climate-driven changes will profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish and wildlife resources and the habitats on which they depend. Indeed, preparing for and coping with the effects of climate change—an endeavor referred to as climate change adaptation—is emerging as the overarching framework for conservation and natural resource management. Developing and implementing effective adaptation strategies requires an understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on our natural world. To provide the best possible chance for conserving species and ecosystems in a rapidly changing climate, it is essential that managers have the ability to both identify what we need to do differently in the future, as well as which existing strategies and activities continue to make sense from a climate adaptation perspective. Vulnerability assessments are a key tool for informing adaptation planning and enabling resource managers to make such judgments. Scanning the Conservation Horizon is designed to assist fish and wildlife managers and other conservation and resource professionals to better plan, execute, and interpret climate change vulnerability assessments. Climate change vulnerability assessments provide two essential contributions to adaptation planning. Specifically, they help in: • Identifying which species or systems are likely to be most strongly affected by projected changes; and • Understanding why these resources are likely to be vulnerable, including the interaction between climate shifts and existing stressors. Determining which resources are most vulnerable enables managers to better set priorities for conservation action, while understanding why they are vulnerable provides a basis for developing appropriate management and conservation responses. Vulnerability to climate change, as the term is used in this guide, has three principle components: sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Vulnerability assessments are, therefore, structured around assessments of these distinct components. Sensitivity generally refers to innate characteristics of a species or system and considers tolerance to changes in such things as temperature, humidity, phenology, or fire. …